Hindu-Muslim Fertility Differentials in Major States of India: Indirect Estimation at District Level from Census 2011

This paper estimates the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for the overall  population in 14 states of India by employing Arriaga variation of P/F ratio method and relational Gompertz model. The paper uses Census 2011 data on average parity and current fertility schedule. Estimation of TFRs at state level by employing Arriaga variation of P/F ratio  method strongly corresponds with Sample Registration System (SRS) compared to those derived from relational Gompertz model. Thus, Arriaga variation of P/F ratio method was retained to estimate the Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials for 422 districts in India from 13 states except Jammu & Kashmir. Comparing the TFRs obtained from  the analyses with the indirect estimates of TFRs from Census 2001, the analysis reveals that the overall fertility transition in India has been steady during the last decade. Fertility transition has been underway for both Hindus and Muslims at a varying pace when  compared to the state-level indirect estimates of Census 2001. Though the overall convergence of fertility between Hindus and Muslims has been underway, significant regional variations persist.
 
Key words: Indirect Estimation, P/F Ratio Method, Hindu-Muslim Fertility Convergence

Dr. Saswata Ghosh

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